Would the hype last until then? 5 years is a very long time in tech world.
MIT economists calculated that current AI can only impact 5% jobs significantly. I don’t think this number would justify a trillions dollar investment (Altman number)
To paraphrase Cory Doctorow, never underestimate: 1. The desire of your CEO to remove as many people as possible from the payroll, and 2. Their willingness to replace a high quality but expensive customer experience with a middling but cheap one when industry consolidation has removed enough competitive pressure.
Current? Only 5%? You're talking about 15 million Americans jobs at an average of $60k/yr each. $900 billion / year. What's in 3 years? 5? All of the developed world not just US? Like COVID showed, people are so bad at seeing what's coming on the exponential curve.
"Our findings reveal that around 80% of the U.S. workforce could have at least 10% of their work tasks affected by the introduction of LLMs, while approximately 19% of workers may see at least 50% of their tasks impacted."
Would the hype last until then? 5 years is a very long time in tech world.
MIT economists calculated that current AI can only impact 5% jobs significantly. I don’t think this number would justify a trillions dollar investment (Altman number)
To paraphrase Cory Doctorow, never underestimate: 1. The desire of your CEO to remove as many people as possible from the payroll, and 2. Their willingness to replace a high quality but expensive customer experience with a middling but cheap one when industry consolidation has removed enough competitive pressure.
Current? Only 5%? You're talking about 15 million Americans jobs at an average of $60k/yr each. $900 billion / year. What's in 3 years? 5? All of the developed world not just US? Like COVID showed, people are so bad at seeing what's coming on the exponential curve.
It says „impact significantly“, not „replace“, so I’m not sure what calculating the salary of impacted jobs is supposed to tell me.
Oh great, I'm relieved since checks notes MIT economists are at the forefront of understanding bleeding edge technology
So you don’t even believe the 5% figure? Why would you make a weird calculation based on it then?
Penn and OpenAI claimed:
"Our findings reveal that around 80% of the U.S. workforce could have at least 10% of their work tasks affected by the introduction of LLMs, while approximately 19% of workers may see at least 50% of their tasks impacted."
https://arxiv.org/abs/2303.10130
That's ... awkward. Their funding round, the biggest in tech history, was expected to only give them eight months of runway...