Why can't they just leave them alone? Taiwan is not a threat to China. They just want to live their lives their way. Are they willing to kill millions of people just to protect their own pride?
Taiwan is a rich country (23M people 1T GDP country)
Taiwan has critical tech and industry that is hard to replicate which china doesnt have access to but the west relies on.
So, if they take it peacefully they both grow in strength and weaken the rest of the world.
If they take it by force then they don't really lose much (barring nuclear exchanges) and cripple the rest of the world.
If the US intervenes then it's another discussion but depends on their military strenght calculations... They might want to fight conventionally the US outside their borders and get the US to give up like vietnam and win over their region by force...
That and historical reasons. If Xi pulls it off he's comparable to Mao.
> If they take it by force, they will take a smoking hole in the ground where all that "critical tech" used to be.
Sure, but first, it's the rest of the world that loses it. With that tech manufacturing base gone, rest of the world might be forced to buy from china. China doesnt buy from Taiwan.
Second, people and documents will still be around similar to germany's rocket scientists, they can be put to work.
> Famous for getting tens of millions of his countrymen killed for no good reason?
Sure, that too. Dictators don't care about pople... (Putin is doing it too and if anything, killing your own people solidifies power...)
I was thinking more how he's perceived like some sort of deity by chinese people and was untouchable power wise.
> "With that tech manufacturing base gone, rest of the world might be forced to buy from china"
There are plenty of other advanced chip fabs outside of Taiwan. The ignorati on HN like to talk shit about Intel, a fair bit of which is deserved, but they have the second most advanced fabs in the world. Samsung, I believe, has the third best.
A bag of fine flour tossed into the clean rooms, and using a taser on all the electronics and control boards makes entire fabs more or less worthless. They probably have multiple doomsday options that wipe out any utility the chip plants might have. I'd probably also have a technology and documentation package ready to be shipped to the US by a secret lawyer - if Taiwan gets taken, the fabs get destroyed, and the US gets the technology.
They're not weak or stupid, the level of retaliation and sabotage in store against any attempt by China to take over would go down in history as some of the most ruthless and savage of all time.
Xi is just beating his chest. China is currently simmering - protests, civil unrest, and dissidence in general is up significantly over the last year or so, and they need to make bold public speeches to look powerful and in control. I don't think there's any risk of widespread public revolt, but they play these games and push propaganda because they have to, not because it makes sense.
China's been threatening to "unify" Taiwan for decades, more or less like clockwork. They missed their best opportunity to actually do it during Biden and covid - the US would likely have just let it happen at that point. With new US fabs popping up, we may reach parity with Taiwan chipmaking capabilities within a decade or less, and that makes the utility of Taiwan even less.
Urban resistance fighters and guerilla tactics from a hostile population makes taking over cities and towns like that more or less completely impossible. Any attempt by China to take Taiwan would end up looking like the US trying to "liberate" Iraq, with constant PR hits, human rights violations, way more money than they want to spend, or risking inciting major unrest if they just wipe out the Taiwanese population like monsters.
I don't think there's any real upside to actually taking Taiwan, it's more useful as a perennial jingoistic narrative than anything else at this point.
The obsession with wars plays a cruel joke with its adherents. China will not go to war with Taiwan unless something really stupid is done against China.
"> multiple doomsday options..." - doomsday for whom exactly? China doesn't import anything vital from Taiwan but the West does. Both Taiwan and the West are dependent on China too.
Moreover, the Chinese have other options: sanctions, blockades, covert military, etc. the precedent has already been established with Venezuela.
If China disrupts Taiwan's fragile economy, the fabs will doomsday themselves and the West will go along with them.
> I don't think there's any real upside to actually taking Taiwan
You're thinking in terms of plunder but that's not how China thinks. China is being pressured economically and threatened militarily - Venezuela supplies oil to China, and the Chinese have investments there - Taiwan is just a pawn in a much bigger, existential game of survival.
Why does Putin want Ukraine? Because he’s an egomaniac who thinks of himself and Russia as being one and the same. Not having control over Ukraine is a deep personal affront to him. All other explanations are downstream of this base, primitive reasoning.
I believe that as long as an independent, democratic and prosperous Taiwan exists, the communist party in China will perceive it as an existential threat, as it might inspire Chinese people to demand a similar regime. Chinese people need to know that there is no alternative to the rule of the Communist Party. It is for this reason that Taiwan needs to be crushed.
Taiwan isn't a threat to China in the military sense. Taiwan is not going to wake up tomorrow and decide to invade China.
But Taiwan is a threat indirectly. Chinese people, but with much more political freedom than in the mainland, and with more prosperity - that's a threat to the Communist Party's legitimacy as ruler of China, in the same way that Ukraine is a threat to Putin's rule of Russia. It's somebody just next door, with approximately the same people, who's doing much better and is much more free. It makes the Chinese and Russians start to get ideas that maybe they could have that, too.
And Taiwan is more directly a threat, because Xi has explicitly made reunification with Taiwan a measure of the legitimacy of the Chinese Communist Party. Xi's mouth made that problem, and now he can't back down without losing face.
> Are they willing to kill millions of people just to protect their own pride?
The whole reason for Taiwan's existence is to be a thorn that western powers can press into China's side. It would never have come into existence in the first place if it was not propped up by hostile meddling foreign powers.
The US is actually sending weapons to China, similar to Ukraine 10 years ago (Javelins authorized and delivered by Trump). As so often, the US is the aggressor here, not China. Just look at Venezuela, Libya, Syria, Irak, Iran, Russia, Yugoslavia, Vietnam, etc. the list of countries destroyed by the USA is basically endless. I wish the US would simply accept the multipolar world.
By helping a country to be able to defend itself against aggression, the US is the aggressor? Both your logic and your morals are worthy of condemnation.
I think it's just human nature for autocratic types to want to take over and control everything even against the wishes of those they bully - see Putin and Ukraine, Xi and Taiwan, Trump and Greenland. It's like that song Everyone Wants to Rule the world. Maybe having AI run things would be better.
If there was ever a time to attack Taiwan, it is now, when Trump is in office. He is so weak and so indecisive, has great admiration for dictators and strongmen. The US will do nothing to stop them.
There's one mention of Taiwan, in the eigth paragraph (of twelve).
"We Chinese on both sides of the Taiwan Strait share a bond of blood and kinship. The reunification of our motherland, a trend of the times, is unstoppable!"
I support an independent Taiwan, and given China's recent military exercises that encircled Taiwan, everyone's right to be cagey, but the speech itself doesn't focus on Taiwan, nor does it seem to escalate China's rhetoric.
To be fair, the Guardian article does provide the context of the military exercises, so I guess I'm complaining about the headline being overly alarming. A first in journalism, I'm sure /s.
The "trend" is a reference to the sentences preceding what I quoted, in which Xi Jinping celebrates the continued integration of Hong Kong and Macau.
"Not long ago, I attended the opening ceremony of the National Games, and I was glad to see Guangdong, Hong Kong and Macao coming together in unity and acting in unison. We should unswervingly implement the policy of One Country, Two Systems, and support Hong Kong and Macao in better integrating into the overall development of our country and maintaining long-term prosperity and stability. We Chinese on both sides of the Taiwan Strait share a bond of blood and kinship. The reunification of our motherland, a trend of the times, is unstoppable!"
Given the unrest and bad optics from Hong Kong, which was a gradual, negotiated transfer of power to China, I'm hoping that the threat of invasion remains just a threat. Soft power takes longer and is more easily contested. I think 2026 will determine if America's step back is a blip or the start of a trend. I wouldn't be surprised if China and other countries are waiting to determine the same.
Why can't they just leave them alone? Taiwan is not a threat to China. They just want to live their lives their way. Are they willing to kill millions of people just to protect their own pride?
Taiwan is a rich country (23M people 1T GDP country)
Taiwan has critical tech and industry that is hard to replicate which china doesnt have access to but the west relies on.
So, if they take it peacefully they both grow in strength and weaken the rest of the world.
If they take it by force then they don't really lose much (barring nuclear exchanges) and cripple the rest of the world.
If the US intervenes then it's another discussion but depends on their military strenght calculations... They might want to fight conventionally the US outside their borders and get the US to give up like vietnam and win over their region by force...
That and historical reasons. If Xi pulls it off he's comparable to Mao.
If they take it by force then they don't really lose much (barring nuclear exchanges) and cripple the rest of the world.
If they take it by force, they will take a smoking hole in the ground where all that "critical tech" used to be.
If Xi pulls it off he's comparable to Mao.
Famous for getting tens of millions of his countrymen killed for no good reason?
> If they take it by force, they will take a smoking hole in the ground where all that "critical tech" used to be.
Sure, but first, it's the rest of the world that loses it. With that tech manufacturing base gone, rest of the world might be forced to buy from china. China doesnt buy from Taiwan.
Second, people and documents will still be around similar to germany's rocket scientists, they can be put to work.
> Famous for getting tens of millions of his countrymen killed for no good reason?
Sure, that too. Dictators don't care about pople... (Putin is doing it too and if anything, killing your own people solidifies power...)
I was thinking more how he's perceived like some sort of deity by chinese people and was untouchable power wise.
> "With that tech manufacturing base gone, rest of the world might be forced to buy from china"
There are plenty of other advanced chip fabs outside of Taiwan. The ignorati on HN like to talk shit about Intel, a fair bit of which is deserved, but they have the second most advanced fabs in the world. Samsung, I believe, has the third best.
Can intel take over all the manufacturing volume currently at TSMC
They can't even take parts since they have different tooling... they're just starting to take 3rd party chips...
A bag of fine flour tossed into the clean rooms, and using a taser on all the electronics and control boards makes entire fabs more or less worthless. They probably have multiple doomsday options that wipe out any utility the chip plants might have. I'd probably also have a technology and documentation package ready to be shipped to the US by a secret lawyer - if Taiwan gets taken, the fabs get destroyed, and the US gets the technology.
They're not weak or stupid, the level of retaliation and sabotage in store against any attempt by China to take over would go down in history as some of the most ruthless and savage of all time.
Xi is just beating his chest. China is currently simmering - protests, civil unrest, and dissidence in general is up significantly over the last year or so, and they need to make bold public speeches to look powerful and in control. I don't think there's any risk of widespread public revolt, but they play these games and push propaganda because they have to, not because it makes sense.
China's been threatening to "unify" Taiwan for decades, more or less like clockwork. They missed their best opportunity to actually do it during Biden and covid - the US would likely have just let it happen at that point. With new US fabs popping up, we may reach parity with Taiwan chipmaking capabilities within a decade or less, and that makes the utility of Taiwan even less.
Urban resistance fighters and guerilla tactics from a hostile population makes taking over cities and towns like that more or less completely impossible. Any attempt by China to take Taiwan would end up looking like the US trying to "liberate" Iraq, with constant PR hits, human rights violations, way more money than they want to spend, or risking inciting major unrest if they just wipe out the Taiwanese population like monsters.
I don't think there's any real upside to actually taking Taiwan, it's more useful as a perennial jingoistic narrative than anything else at this point.
The obsession with wars plays a cruel joke with its adherents. China will not go to war with Taiwan unless something really stupid is done against China.
"> multiple doomsday options..." - doomsday for whom exactly? China doesn't import anything vital from Taiwan but the West does. Both Taiwan and the West are dependent on China too.
Moreover, the Chinese have other options: sanctions, blockades, covert military, etc. the precedent has already been established with Venezuela.
If China disrupts Taiwan's fragile economy, the fabs will doomsday themselves and the West will go along with them.
> I don't think there's any real upside to actually taking Taiwan
You're thinking in terms of plunder but that's not how China thinks. China is being pressured economically and threatened militarily - Venezuela supplies oil to China, and the Chinese have investments there - Taiwan is just a pawn in a much bigger, existential game of survival.
Taiwan is a threat to China, not military but socially. The CCP (and Xi in particular) has made "One China" a key point.
The deaths of a few million Taiwan people is not a big deal to ensure the future survival and stability of China and the CCP.
Why does Putin want Ukraine? Because he’s an egomaniac who thinks of himself and Russia as being one and the same. Not having control over Ukraine is a deep personal affront to him. All other explanations are downstream of this base, primitive reasoning.
Same with Xi and Taiwan.
I believe that as long as an independent, democratic and prosperous Taiwan exists, the communist party in China will perceive it as an existential threat, as it might inspire Chinese people to demand a similar regime. Chinese people need to know that there is no alternative to the rule of the Communist Party. It is for this reason that Taiwan needs to be crushed.
Taiwan isn't a threat to China in the military sense. Taiwan is not going to wake up tomorrow and decide to invade China.
But Taiwan is a threat indirectly. Chinese people, but with much more political freedom than in the mainland, and with more prosperity - that's a threat to the Communist Party's legitimacy as ruler of China, in the same way that Ukraine is a threat to Putin's rule of Russia. It's somebody just next door, with approximately the same people, who's doing much better and is much more free. It makes the Chinese and Russians start to get ideas that maybe they could have that, too.
And Taiwan is more directly a threat, because Xi has explicitly made reunification with Taiwan a measure of the legitimacy of the Chinese Communist Party. Xi's mouth made that problem, and now he can't back down without losing face.
> Are they willing to kill millions of people just to protect their own pride?
In a "face" culture? Yes, they may be.
The whole reason for Taiwan's existence is to be a thorn that western powers can press into China's side. It would never have come into existence in the first place if it was not propped up by hostile meddling foreign powers.
The US is actually sending weapons to China, similar to Ukraine 10 years ago (Javelins authorized and delivered by Trump). As so often, the US is the aggressor here, not China. Just look at Venezuela, Libya, Syria, Irak, Iran, Russia, Yugoslavia, Vietnam, etc. the list of countries destroyed by the USA is basically endless. I wish the US would simply accept the multipolar world.
By helping a country to be able to defend itself against aggression, the US is the aggressor? Both your logic and your morals are worthy of condemnation.
I think it's just human nature for autocratic types to want to take over and control everything even against the wishes of those they bully - see Putin and Ukraine, Xi and Taiwan, Trump and Greenland. It's like that song Everyone Wants to Rule the world. Maybe having AI run things would be better.
I wish people would think long term. China should be friendlier with Taiwan and maybe in 100 years there could be some sort of Chinese Union.
It reminds me of the Falklands. Argentina should have invested in wooing the Falklanders who weren't getting much attention from the British then.
Why would there be a union? Taiwan is not equal to China.
The EU kind of works. It doesn't mean Germany has to be equal to Malta for example for that to happen.
It’s worth mentioning that he says this every year.
If there was ever a time to attack Taiwan, it is now, when Trump is in office. He is so weak and so indecisive, has great admiration for dictators and strongmen. The US will do nothing to stop them.
You really think the US military industrial complex will allow Trump to not act to defend profits errr freedom?
have you not been paying attention? The entire US *-complex is made of bootlickers and spineless men who grovel and kiss the ring.
Great. I wanted to go the rest of my life without another war. Can't these nimrods find something else to do?
Has he tried like golf or pickleball? Bro get a hobby.
Here's the full English text of Xi Jinping's speech: https://www.chinadaily.com.cn/a/202512/31/WS69550b6ba310d686...
There's one mention of Taiwan, in the eigth paragraph (of twelve).
"We Chinese on both sides of the Taiwan Strait share a bond of blood and kinship. The reunification of our motherland, a trend of the times, is unstoppable!"
I support an independent Taiwan, and given China's recent military exercises that encircled Taiwan, everyone's right to be cagey, but the speech itself doesn't focus on Taiwan, nor does it seem to escalate China's rhetoric.
To be fair, the Guardian article does provide the context of the military exercises, so I guess I'm complaining about the headline being overly alarming. A first in journalism, I'm sure /s.
"A trend of the times"? In fact, Taiwan is not trending toward reunification.
The "trend" is a reference to the sentences preceding what I quoted, in which Xi Jinping celebrates the continued integration of Hong Kong and Macau.
"Not long ago, I attended the opening ceremony of the National Games, and I was glad to see Guangdong, Hong Kong and Macao coming together in unity and acting in unison. We should unswervingly implement the policy of One Country, Two Systems, and support Hong Kong and Macao in better integrating into the overall development of our country and maintaining long-term prosperity and stability. We Chinese on both sides of the Taiwan Strait share a bond of blood and kinship. The reunification of our motherland, a trend of the times, is unstoppable!"
Given the unrest and bad optics from Hong Kong, which was a gradual, negotiated transfer of power to China, I'm hoping that the threat of invasion remains just a threat. Soft power takes longer and is more easily contested. I think 2026 will determine if America's step back is a blip or the start of a trend. I wouldn't be surprised if China and other countries are waiting to determine the same.
poohbear needs to fuck right off