Tesla stock price is below Nov 2021 - 5 years of going sideways.
Tesla revenue is roughly the same as Jun 2023 - 3 years of going sideways.
Chinese are trashing Tesla in EV's, batteries, solar panels, energy, robots and self-driving. Tesla looks like like Chinese roadkill. Pioneer of technology that transfers into China where they make it scale.
Tesla is a stupid (read: high downside risk with capped upside) short. There is an implied put below which it almost certainly makes sense for SpaceX to buy it. If they crash together, there is probably another level–well above 30x earnings–below which Musk could orgainse a take-private bid.
If it crashes, why would you want to buy it? If reality ever comes a knocking, I would not expect fantasy valuations to hit a second time. EV competition is only increasing and Tesla is no longer especially notable vs the competition.
I suppose Elon would for some financial manipulation games to prove he is the richest, but otherwise seems like a bad deal.
For Musk, to stave off an embarassment. Same as the X acquisition into xAI and, most probably, the xAI merger with SpaceX. For his backers, to maintain access to the world's richest man.
Then there is the fact that Tesla operates America's only scaling EV-manufacturing operation.
Tesla has been using the excuse of "we're a XYZ company, not a car company" to justify its sky high validation for the better part of a decade. They're an AI company! Wait, now they're a robotics company!
So why would it matter now if their car business has a good year?
Tesla's semi-autonomous FSD falls in the uncanny valley between being good enough to lull you into an inattentive state, but not reliable enough to be better than humans with all possible unforseen situations of the sort that cause real-world crashes and either deal with it safely without driver intervention or at least safely slow to a stop without disaster.
You either capture Level 4 autonomy or you don't, and currently Waymo are leading the way in this, not Tesla, who are Level 3 at best - curious, because with the ever-increasing rate of AI competence and their massive head start, you'd expect them to have cracked Level 4 by now.
The prospect of Level 4+ FSD and being #1 in an ever-expanding market without realistic competition were Tesla's USPs and they are in the process of losing both.
I suspect the market knows this and sees the recent better than expected results as a short-term reprieve, not a renewal of the dream.
> Tesla, who are Level 3 at best - curious, because with the ever-increasing rate of AI competence and their massive head start, you'd expect them to have cracked Level 4 by now.
Perhaps (1) Tesla's technology is incapable of level 4 (no LIDAR), or (2) Tesla is not as good at AI as its competitors, or (3) Tesla really truly is a droid company and the car thing was never a priority, or (4) the CEO is on drugs and should not be allowed to wave chainsaws around.
Tesla stock price is below Nov 2021 - 5 years of going sideways.
Tesla revenue is roughly the same as Jun 2023 - 3 years of going sideways.
Chinese are trashing Tesla in EV's, batteries, solar panels, energy, robots and self-driving. Tesla looks like like Chinese roadkill. Pioneer of technology that transfers into China where they make it scale.
Tesla still trades at over 300x earnings. Which means a further 10x price drop would be required to bring it in line with the market.
Think of all the money you can make shorting the stock.
'Markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.' – John Maynard Keynes
Tesla is a stupid (read: high downside risk with capped upside) short. There is an implied put below which it almost certainly makes sense for SpaceX to buy it. If they crash together, there is probably another level–well above 30x earnings–below which Musk could orgainse a take-private bid.
If it crashes, why would you want to buy it? If reality ever comes a knocking, I would not expect fantasy valuations to hit a second time. EV competition is only increasing and Tesla is no longer especially notable vs the competition.
I suppose Elon would for some financial manipulation games to prove he is the richest, but otherwise seems like a bad deal.
> If it crashes, why would you want to buy it?
For Musk, to stave off an embarassment. Same as the X acquisition into xAI and, most probably, the xAI merger with SpaceX. For his backers, to maintain access to the world's richest man.
Then there is the fact that Tesla operates America's only scaling EV-manufacturing operation.
If only we weren't witness to the largest irrational bull run of monied interests in our lifetime, we could gamble!
It's still a cult. A dangerous one, financially speaking. They can (and probably will) outlast everyone but Elon himself.
Tesla has been using the excuse of "we're a XYZ company, not a car company" to justify its sky high validation for the better part of a decade. They're an AI company! Wait, now they're a robotics company!
So why would it matter now if their car business has a good year?
Full self driving v14 is really good on HW4 cars. And now v14-lite is coming to all the HW3 cars.
Tesla's semi-autonomous FSD falls in the uncanny valley between being good enough to lull you into an inattentive state, but not reliable enough to be better than humans with all possible unforseen situations of the sort that cause real-world crashes and either deal with it safely without driver intervention or at least safely slow to a stop without disaster.
You either capture Level 4 autonomy or you don't, and currently Waymo are leading the way in this, not Tesla, who are Level 3 at best - curious, because with the ever-increasing rate of AI competence and their massive head start, you'd expect them to have cracked Level 4 by now.
The prospect of Level 4+ FSD and being #1 in an ever-expanding market without realistic competition were Tesla's USPs and they are in the process of losing both.
I suspect the market knows this and sees the recent better than expected results as a short-term reprieve, not a renewal of the dream.
> Tesla, who are Level 3 at best - curious, because with the ever-increasing rate of AI competence and their massive head start, you'd expect them to have cracked Level 4 by now.
Perhaps (1) Tesla's technology is incapable of level 4 (no LIDAR), or (2) Tesla is not as good at AI as its competitors, or (3) Tesla really truly is a droid company and the car thing was never a priority, or (4) the CEO is on drugs and should not be allowed to wave chainsaws around.
Except soon, it’ll probably just use an advisor model for its gaps… trolley car fork ? What do I do fable ? Sorry security guardrails tripped…